The science fiction movie that I watched for the Module 4 assignment was Paycheck.  When I read the assignment, I did not even consider trying to locate a DVD.  We have a theater room with a Western Digital Media component.  That device allows us to pick up videos from several streaming video providers.  We also have a connection for our laptops to hook in to the projection system.  This allows us to pick up videos from Amazon streaming.  For this project, I purchased the streaming video for $2.99 from Amazon.  It instantly appeared on our projection screen.

This conversion from DVD to VOD is one that our family embraces completely.  Years ago, we had a massive collection of VHS tapes.  As that technology disappeared, it was obvious that our financial investment in VHS tapes was a mistake.  We dallied at creating a DVD collection during the early days emergence.  Although we converted to the new technology, we hesitated to make purchases and begin a collection.  With the appearance of VOD, that dilemma disappeared.  We are members of Amazon PRIME for purchases, and there are many videos that we can watch for free. Convenient service and the simplicity of digital storage make the VOD concept a superior one for our house.

This competition between DVD and VOD is an excellent example of increasing returns.  According to Arthur (1996), an emerging technology follows the process of increasing returns when the innovation moves ahead of the competition.  In a snowball effect, once ahead it continues to get farther ahead.   

VOD follows this explanation.  This system gained popularity with consumers due to advantages in delivery and storage.  As more consumers acquire rapid Internet connectivity, this advantage compounds.  The popularity of DVDs is in a decline as evidence by a reduction of DVD searching (Peoples, 2011) and reduction in DVD player sales (Daily Mail Reporter, 2010).

         The concept of red queens in emerging technologies comes from the Red Queen in “Alice in Wonderland”.  In this movie, the characters race and race to just stay in the same place.  For emerging technologies, this refers to two technologies moving ahead in fierce competition.  This does not fit the DVD and VOD market with the sequential timing of the technology.  The VOD market followed DVD’s and included additional dependence on Internet technology. 

         I believe DVD’s are working their way toward the obsolete quadrant of McLuhan’s tetrad.  Digital media resources will continue to overtake the DVD market.  VOD technology enhances video delivery by providing the consumer more control, easy storage and acquisition, and a reduction in cost.  Both technologies obsolete VHS and static television movie viewing.  Additionally, VOD obsoletes DVDs.  VOD’s eliminate the possibility of damage as noted in a broken, scratched, or damaged disk.  Although digital files can become corrupted, marketing systems can provide backups and product assurance.

References:

Arthur, W. (1996). Increasing Returns and the New World of Business. Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100-109. 

Daily Mail Reporter (2010, May 5).  DVD player sales plummeting as film lovers switch to downloads.  Mail Online: Science and Tech.  Retrieved from: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1270704/DVD-sales-decline-likely-die-internet-Digiboxes-over.html 

Krugman, P. (writer). (1999, August 19). 33000_33448_neubecker_lan (graphic).  Retrieved November 6, 2012 from:  http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_dismal_science/1999/08/talking_about_a_revolution.html

Peoples, G. (2011, April 22). Google report on DVD’s decline not death. Billboard.biz.  Retrieved November 6, 2012 from:: http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/industry/tv-film/google-report-on-dvd-s-decline-not-death-1005150012.story